Duke's Gonna Win, but Let's Have a Little Fun

Duke has completely run through the ACC this year, aside from a slip-up at Clemson in a game they gave away more than lost. However, if you take them out of the equation, the ACC tournament is truly anyone’s to win. My official pick to win the ACC is Duke, with Louisville being their biggest threat. Even though Clemson is the team that beat them, the guard play of the Cardinals is at times better than Duke’s. For fun, though, let's imagine Duke was completely wiped off the planet.

Without Duke, Louisville would be the favorite, but a few teams could challenge them. The first is obviously Clemson, and I really hope those teams meet in the ACC semifinals because it would be a fantastic game between two tournament teams. However, Clemson does not have an automatic path to the semis because SMU is a team that interests me. Even though the Mustangs have no Quad 1 wins, they can score the basketball. If they get hot in the tournament, they could be a tough out, especially with how well they shoot the three. Boopie Miller has ACC tournament experience, along with Matt Cross, who has lethal range.

For Louisville, their test would be Stanford, who took down UNC in Carolina. Besides Cooper Flagg, Stanford center Maxime Raynaud is extremely talented and the second-best player in the ACC. He is a seven-footer who can stretch the floor and has a very underrated post game. Along with Jaylen Blakes, he can give the Cardinals a game if they are caught sleeping. However, I think Louisville and Clemson would still meet in the semis, with Louisville prevailing in a close game.

Now, the upper part of the bracket is what makes this hypothetical scenario fun. I think four teams could make the final without Duke: Notre Dame, Pitt, Wake, and UNC. No offense to Georgia Tech and Virginia, but I do not think they have the talent in a tournament setting to make much noise. However, their matchup will probably be close and comparable to watching paint dry (I love the Under).

Pitt and Notre Dame will be playing today at 2. Even though Pitt has had a season from hell, they have a better overall team, but Notre Dame has Markus Burton, who is a superstar. He is extremely fun to watch—a shifty combo guard who attacks the rim but can also shoot at a solid clip. Pitt lost a close game at Notre Dame about a month ago, and while this may seem biased, I think they win. The overall talent will prevail, even though the coaching will hold them back and make the game closer than it should be.

After that, I think the next two games are complete 50/50 toss-ups, making this hard to pick. Pitt and Carolina played twice, with the home team winning each time. Pitt’s win was more dominant, but Carolina has been hotter down the stretch. Honestly, I see a world where both teams could blow each other out, but also a world where it comes down to the final shot. Biased me thinks Pitt will win, but realistically, it's hard to go against RJ Davis playing in his final ACC tournament.

The Wake vs. Pitt/UNC game will also be another toss-up and a high-scoring affair. Sallis and Efton Reid for Wake are talented but have always fallen short the past three years. I think whoever wins the Pitt/UNC game will beat Wake in a very close game. In reality, I have Pitt or UNC playing Duke and either getting blown out or losing a heartbreaker, which seems to be the standard for both teams this year. But with no Duke, the championship should be a very fun game with Louisville playing either Pitt or UNC.

A Louisville vs. Pitt final would be pretty awesome. Louisville swept the season series, winning a very close game at the Pete that came down to the final thirty seconds. Then, on senior day, Pitt kept it close at Louisville until the final three minutes, when the Cardinals pulled away. In both wins, Reyne Smith and Chucky Hepburn had career games shooting from three and took over late. Louisville struggled to handle Pitt’s big men, which is concerning because Pitt’s bigs stink. I think it’s extremely hard to beat a team three times, but Louisville has Pat Kelsey, my pick for ACC Coach of the Year. In the trilogy game, I think Louisville wins the ACC.

Now, if UNC faces Louisville, I think it will be the Tar Heels. I believe Davis has a miracle run in him and could challenge Duke because of the rivalry factor. Without Duke, I think UNC wins the whole tournament because of how well they have been shooting down the stretch. Chucky has had a better year, but with my life on the line in a tournament setting, I would trust RJ Davis to lead my team.

Duke is the team to beat and will likely claim another title, clinching their one-seed in the NCAA tournament. Without them, the ACC becomes truly intriguing, with Louisville, Clemson, Pitt, UNC, and Wake all in the mix. Notre Dame could make a sneaky run with Burton if they beat Pitt today. However, with no Duke, it would likely come down to Louisville and UNC’s tournament to lose.