March Madness Predictions & Best Bets: Thursday

It's FINALLY Christmas Eve, or at least that's the vibe many of us are feeling right now as we impatiently await tomorrow. The teaser tast night was very up and down, but remember—the First Four always is. Thursday is what we want, it kicks us into high gear, now of course I know many are one-month college basketball fans, so here’s a guide for those who need it!

#9 Creighton (Big East 24-10) vs. #8 Louisville (ACC 27-7)

Players to Watch

Creighton: F Ryan Kalkbrenner 19.4 PTS, 8.8 REB, G Steven Ashworth 16.3 PTS, 6.8 AST, 37% 3PT

Louisville: G/F Terrance Edwards Jr. 16.6 PTS, 4.1 REB, G Ryne Smith 13.4 PTS, 38% 3PT

Overview:

It’s a classic 8/9 matchup, and you could find five arguments for each team to win or lose. Louisville is more athletic, though Terrance Edwards Jr. vs. Jamiya Neal one-on-one should be fun to watch. Creighton needs threes a little more than Louisville.

Best Bet: Over 144.5 (-110)

Prediction: Creighton 77, Louisville 73

#13 High Point (Big South 29-5) vs. #4 Purdue (Big Ten 22-11)

Players to Watch

High Point: G Kezza Giffa 14.8 PTS, F Kimani Hamilton 13.4 PTS, 4.7 REB

Purdue: G Braden Smith 16.1 PTS, 8.7 AST, F Trey Kaufman-Renn 20.2 PTS, 6.2 REB

Overview:

Purdue is a two-headed monster with Smith & Kaufman-Renn. Containing them will be the key to High Point pulling an upset. One advantage for High Point is their depth—they will play a lot of guys, staying fresh in their up-and-down game. High Point loves to score, one of the best in the nation.

Best Bet: High Point +7.5 (-102)

Prediction: High Point 81, Purdue 71

#14 Montana (Big Sky 25-9) vs. #3 Wisconsin (Big Ten 26-9)

Players to Watch

Montana: G Money Williams(such a badass name) 13.3 PTS, 35% 3PT, G Joe Pridgen 11.5 PTS, 6.9 REB

Wisconsin: G John Tonje 19.2 PTS, 91% FT, G John Blackwell 15.5 PTS, 45% FG

Overview:

This one would be a true SHOCKER! Montana is considered one of the "luckiest" teams in the metrics and lost by a combined 80+ points to power conference teams this year. Wisconsin may be a little tired, but they should roll the Grizz.

Best Bet: Wisconsin -17.5

Prediction: Wisconsin 84, Montana 61

#16 SIU Edwardsville (OVC 22-11) vs. #1 Houston (Big 12 30-4)

Players to Watch

SIUE: G Ray’Sean Taylor 19.3 PTS, 4.5 REB, F Ring Malith 11.5 PTS, 7.2 REB

Houston: G L.J. Cryer 15.2 PTS, 42% 3PT, G Milos Uzan 11.5 PTS, 43% 3PT

Overview:

This is another major longshot, with SIUE of course being the 16-seed. Really, the only way this becomes an upset bid is red-hot shooting from them and a very, very, very cold day for Houston.

Best Bet: Over 126.5 (-108)

Prediction: Houston 86, SIUE 49

#16 Alabama State (SWAC 20-15) vs. #1 Auburn (SEC 28-5)

Players to Watch

Alabama State: G TJ Madlock 12.6 PTS, 7.2 REB, G CJ Hines 14.3 PTS, 39% 3PT

Auburn: F Johni Broome 18.9 PTS, 10.6 REB, G/F Chad Baker-Mazara 12.6 PTS, 39% 3PT

Overview:

Bama State has no answers for Broome in this one—expect him to have a field day. The Hornets’ hope is to force havoc full-court or get Broome into bad foul trouble to keep it close. That shouldn’t matter—the talent gap in this one is too large.

Best Bet: Alabama State +32.5

Prediction: Auburn 81, Alabama State 53

#12 McNeese (Southland 27-6) vs. #5 Clemson (ACC 27-6)

Players to Watch

McNeese: G Javohn Garcia 12.9 PTS, 1.6 STL, G Sincere Parker 12.1 PTS

Clemson: G Chase Hunter 16.4 PTS, 41% 3PT, F Ian Schieffelin 12.8 PTS, 9.4 REB

Overview:

For the second straight year, McNeese enters as a trendy 12-seed upset pick. I will say, this is a better matchup than last year for them. Clemson needs to take care of the ball and keep Schieffelin out of foul trouble to avoid slipping up here.

Best Bet: McNeese +7.5 (-110)

Prediction: Clemson 66, McNeese 60

#11 VCU (A-10 28-6) vs. #6 BYU (Big 12 24-9)

Players to Watch

VCU: G Max Shulga 15.1 PTS, 5.9 REB, G Joe Bamisile 15.1 PTS, 5.1 REB

BYU: F Richie Saunders 16 PTS, 43% 3PT, G Egor Demin 10.3 PTS, 5.4 AST

Overview:

This is a clash of opposites—VCU is all about defense, while BYU just wants to score as much as possible. BYU is also a trendy pick to make a deep run, but VCU will need to be tough and athletic to win this one. If they can defend the three well, BYU is in trouble.

Best Bet: VCU ML +136

Prediction: VCU 74, BYU 62

#9 Georgia (SEC 20-12) vs. #8 Gonzaga (WCC 25-8)

Players to Watch

Georgia: F Asa Newell 15.3 PTS, 6.8 REB, G Silas Demary Jr. 13.4 PTS, 3.1 AST

Gonzaga: F Graham Ike 17.1 PTS, 7.5 REB, G Khalif Battle 13.2 PTS, 92% FT

Overview:

This one is a heavyweight 8/9 matchup. Gonzaga has the advantage in depth, but Georgia will not back down after playing a tough schedule all year, including some big wins. Two things to watch: Which big man stays out of foul trouble? Who can hit their threes?

Best Bet: Over 150.5 (-110)

Prediction: Gonzaga 85, Georgia 73

#15 Wofford (SoCon 19-15) vs. #2 Tennessee (SEC 27-7)

Players to Watch

Wofford: G Corey Tripp 14.3 PTS, 4 REB, F Kyler Filewich 11.9 PTS, 9.4 REB (and you gotta hope he shoots a FT)

Tennessee: G Chaz Lanier 17.7 PTS, 40% 3PT, G Zakai Zeigler 13.8 PTS, 7.3 AST

Overview:

Not a great matchup for Wofford to pull off the upset. Tennessee just seems way too athletic to struggle against the Terriers. IF they want a chance, they will need to shoot it like crazy. Lanier will be fun to watch for Tennessee.

Best Bet: Tennessee -18.5 (-112)

Prediction: Tennessee 71, Wofford 47

#10 Arkansas (SEC 20-13) vs. #7 Kansas (Big 12 21-12)

Players to Watch

Arkansas: F Adou Thiero 15.6 PTS, 6 REB, G Boogie Fland 15.1 PTS, 5.7 AST

Kansas: F Hunter Dickinson 17.6 PTS, 10 REB, G Dajuan Harris Jr. 9.2 PTS, 5.7 AST

Overview:

We have two teams that just never met their season expectations—or at least not yet. They both have the firepower to make deep runs, but the question is—can they put it all together? If I'm Arkansas, I run all my actions against Dickinson to try to get him in foul trouble. Arkansas needs to use its athleticism inside.

Best Bet: Arkansas ML +170

Prediction: Arkansas 79, Kansas 77

#13 Yale (Ivy 22-7) vs. #4 Texas A&M (SEC 22-10)

Players to Watch

Yale: G John Poulakidas 19.2 PTS, 41% 3FG, F Nick Townsend 15.4 PTS, 7.2 REB

Texas A&M: G Wade Taylor IV 15.7 PTS, 4.3 AST, F Henry Coleman 7.8 PTS, 5.6 REB

Overview:

Yale is another trendy upset pick, and for good reason—they shoot it very well but also pair that with a solid inside presence in Townsend. A&M will need to defend the three and force Yale to settle for twos to avoid an upset.

Best Bet: Yale +7.5 (-110) & Over 138.5 (-115)

Prediction: Yale 76, Texas A&M 67

#11 Drake (MVC 30-3) vs. #6 Missouri (SEC 22-11)

Players to Watch

Drake: G Bennett Stirtz 19.1 PTS, 5.7 AST, 39% 3FG, G Mitch Mascari 9.8 PTS, 41% 3FG

Missouri: G Caleb Grill 13.7 PTS, 41% 3FG, G Tamar Bates 13.4 PTS, 40% 3FG

Overview:

This is another polar opposites matchup, similar to VCU-BYU. Drake wants to slow it down, while Mizzou is all about running and gunning. The difference in this one could be Missouri’s size giving Drake some fits. Also, if this game is close late, it could favor Drake, as Missouri does not shoot free throws well.

Best Bet: Over 132.5 (-105)

Prediction: Missouri 75, Drake 64

#10 Utah State (MWC 26-7) vs. #7 UCLA (Big Ten 22-10)

Players to Watch

Utah State: G Ian Martinez 16.8 PTS, 38% 3FG, G Mason Falslev 14.9 PTS, 6.2 REB

UCLA: F Tyler Bilodeau 13.6 PTS, 4.5 REB, G Kobe Johnson 8.1 PTS, 5.9 REB

Overview:

Before last night’s complete dud of a performance by SDSU, I had Utah State with the advantage due to their shooting and pace of play. But now, I’ve lost a lot of faith in the Mountain West. UCLA will need Bilodeau to be a presence and keep the game in the 60s.

Best Bet: Under 143.5 (-105)

Prediction: UCLA 69, Utah State 55

#15 Omaha (Summit 22-12) vs. #2 Saint John's (Big East 30-4)

Players to Watch

Omaha: F Marquel Sutton 19.1 PTS, 8 REB, G Tony Osburn 12.2 PTS, 40% 3FG

Saint John's: G RJ Luis Jr. 18.4 PTS, 7.2 REB, G Kadary Richmond 12.7 PTS, 5.4 AST

Overview:

This is a scary game for the Johnnies, as Omaha has that "don’t care, just have fun" attitude—similar to Oral Roberts, Florida Gulf Coast, or Middle Tennessee State, past 15-seed winners. If the Mavs hit from deep, specifically Osburn, they have a shot. Johnnies need to lean on their length and athleticism to pull away into the second round.

Best Bet: Over 147.5 (-115)

Prediction: St. John’s 87, Omaha 66

#12 UC San Diego (Big West 30-4) vs. #5 Michigan (Big Ten 25-9)

Players to Watch

UCSD: G Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones 19.5 PTS, 5.5 REB, G Hayden Gray 11.2 PTS, 3.2 STL

Michigan: F Danny Wolf 13.1 PTS, 9.8 REB, F Vladislav Goldin 16.7 PTS, 6.8 REB

Overview:

This game will most likely come down to two things—turnovers and points in the paint. If Michigan wins both those battles, they win. If not, then it’s an opening for a Triton upset. They weirdly went from a trendy pick to now the public turning on them. I am sticking with my guys!

Best Bet: UCSD ML +124

Prediction: UCSD 74, Michigan 67

#14 UNC Wilmington (CAA 27-7) vs. #3 Texas Tech (Big 12 25-8)

Players to Watch

UNCW: G Donovan Newby 14.6 PTS, 3.5 AST, F Khamari McGriff 11.6 PTS, 4 REB

Texas Tech: F JT Toppin 18.1 PTS, 9.2 REB, F Darrion Williams 14.3 PTS, 5.2 REB

Overview:

This is similar to the Montana/Wisconsin matchup—it feels like an extreme long shot to see Tech fall here. They have the advantage in all the metrics, while also being more talented. UNCW will need to not only shoot well but also find a way to stay out of foul trouble when trying to stop Toppin.

Best Bet: Texas Tech -14.5 (-118)

Prediction: Texas Tech 81, UNCW 62

An exciting first day of endless possibilities is ahead of us! I’ll be interested to see how I do in the predictions department. Also, tomorrow I’ll post some other fun or long-shot bets, too. Friday’s games will be released tonight or tomorrow as well. For the casuals, hopefully, this gives a little more insight into the Big Dance!

Bet Recap: SDSU....stinker.

Bet of the Day:

03-19

American -2.5

Texas-Xavier over 151.5

Odds: +267