Is this the Year of the 6 Seed?

With how dominant the top teams in the country have been, avoiding chalk picks has been a challenge. It’s hard to see many of these one- to three-seeds getting knocked out early, but two six-seeds who could make some noise are BYU and Illinois.

BYU absolutely runs teams off the court, and in their first-round matchup against VCU—a team that is great defensively but really struggles to score—I think BYU’s talent prevails. That’s a favorable opening-round matchup for them. Meanwhile, Illinois faces the winner of Xavier and Texas, two weak bubble teams in a year when the bubble was extremely dull. With Illinois getting healthy at the right time, it’s hard to see them being on upset watch.

For the Mormons, they are led by junior guard Richie Saunders, who was First-Team All-Big 12 and looks like the most stereotypical BYU player ever. They also have freshman Egor Denim, who was high on draft boards to start the year but has fallen as of late. However, his play has remained extremely consistent, especially down the stretch. BYU won eight straight before losing to Houston in the Big 12 semifinals (my pick for the national championship). During that stretch, they beat Iowa State twice and Arizona while dominating the other teams they played. Even though they are not as defensively focused—ranking 68th overall in defense—their offensive rating is 11th. This high-octane style can hurt teams with a low defensive floor, but their path favors this approach. VCU is the best defensive team they would face in the first two rounds, but with VCU playing in the A-10, the talent discrepancy between the two teams is a concern. In this case, stats can be thrown out the window.

Beyond that, I think BYU’s toughest matchup in the entire region—other than Duke—is Wisconsin, given how balanced the Badgers are. I have watched Wisconsin play a lot this year, and their defense and offense are not as impressive as their rankings suggest. For starters, in their home loss to Oregon, they really struggled to stop Jack Shelstad, a ball-dominant, elite three-point shooter. They also struggled to rebound down the stretch of that game. With BYU having both Denim and Saunders, I do not trust Klesmit to effectively guard either of them. Now, Tonje will be a matchup problem, but forcing him to take three-point shots worked for Michigan yesterday, and I think that could be a trend when teams face the Badgers.

Now, as a ryder, I will bow out and say Alabama will beat BYU. But realistically, the Cougars have a shot, especially given Alabama’s struggles on the defensive side of the ball. While Bama will have the superior frontcourt, BYU can really attack Mark Sears in the backcourt and turn it into a shootout. I really hope this game happens because I think there will be a thousand points scored in an up-and-down, back-and-forth battle.

Ultimately, I think Duke—being elite on both offense and defense—will end BYU’s run. However, their path to the Sweet 16 and even the Elite 8 is not crazy to carve out.

Illinois is a fun team and one of my favorites in the Big Ten, along with Maryland. They’ve had a slightly disappointing season, but injuries in the middle stretch really hurt them. They’ve also played down to their competition at times, suffering conference losses to USC, Rutgers, and Northwestern. On top of that, they were embarrassed at Madison Square Garden by Duke, losing by 40 points—including a step-back three from Duke’s bench charity case.

They are a younger team, which explains some of their struggles, but wins against Iowa, Purdue, and Michigan down the stretch have injected new life into them. I think Illinois has the easiest path of any six-seed, especially given how unimpressive the two possible 11-seed opponents—Xavier and Texas—are. Additionally, I believe they get the weakest three-seed in Kentucky. While Kentucky has been solid, they’re banged up, and with Jaxson Robinson out, I see Illinois pulling off the upset. In my opinion, freshman star Kasparas Jakucionis will be the best player on the court in the first two rounds. The projected top-10 pick is an unreal talent—standing at 6-foot-6—who can get to his shot against guards whenever he pleases. Now, Lamont Butler would be the perfect counter for him, but his lingering shoulder injury and the sling he’s been wearing have clearly limited his mobility.

Kentucky hasn’t really impressed me since their win at Tennessee nearly two months ago. They’ve been floating between a three- and four-seed, largely riding SEC hype. Now, looking ahead to the Sweet 16, Tennessee is an extremely talented team and just beat Auburn. However, I think Illinois’ size can match their physicality. This is my 2-vs-6 upset pick—I’m calling my shot—especially since Tennessee’s offense can look poor at times.

Of course, I can see a scenario where Illinois gets completely shut down, but I think they’ll do enough to stick around in a lower-scoring game and pull away late. Ultimately, I believe Houston will end both teams’ seasons, but Illinois’ youth and NBA-level talent excite me a lot more than Tennessee’s. That’s why I think they could make a surprising run.