Favorites, Dark Horses, and Cinderellas of Madness

The First Four of the madness kicks off tonight, with a pretty good matchup between San Diego State and, of course, the tournament committee’s favorite, North Carolina. Right away with matchup one, we are already in a tough spot—it seems each year, filling out our brackets gets tougher and tougher. Each year, someone surprises. Even though last year most high seeds did find their way to the Sweet 16 & Elite 8, some first-round games thrilled with certain darlings capturing our hearts. Now that the bracket is ready, let’s take a look at who our favorites, dark horses, and Cinderellas could be.

Criteria:

Three factors go into these choices—matchups, shooting numbers, and X-factor player possibilities.

Cinderellas

#14 Lipscomb

Before I say anything else—they are one of the top 3-point shooting teams in the nation. Cinderella loves the three! Next, they are getting an Iowa State team missing one of its top players, and then could get a favorable second-round game against Ole Miss, SDSU, or UNC. Matchups are so important in March, and Lipscomb got some. Lastly, they have a big, strong, and VERY skilled player in Jacob Ognacevic, who averages 20 PPG. Lipscomb could shock and shake up some brackets.

#13 Akron

Again, back to the three-part criteria—they can shoot the hell out of the ball. They have a decent matchup in Arizona, who is not the best defensively and has thrown in some dud performances throughout the season. Lastly, Nate Johnson is an electric guard with good size—he will not be intimidated one bit. The Zips’ play style will win over hearts if they can dance past midnight.

#12 Colorado State

MATCHUP HEAVEN! They get a beat-up and most likely tired Memphis squad that is prone to making mistakes. The Rams also have a great game-changer in Nique Clifford, who averages close to a double-double. He will give the Tigers a tough time. The Rams would then likely get a Maryland team that isn’t very deep. This has Sweet 16 stink all over it.

#12 UC San Diego

How can I not keep faith in the Tritons? They shoot it so well, and they have the perfect X-factor in Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, who may be playing his best ball right now. I’ve been on these guys all season—I can’t back down now. The only worry is that the matchup has me 50/50. Michigan has a HUGE size advantage, but they turn the ball over at an alarming rate, and we know our Tritons LOVE to get those steals. The Tritons are made for Cinderella status—let’s get the nation on notice.

#15 Bryant

You need a long-shot Cinderella, and the Bulldogs are one. The only New Balance-sponsored squad, too. They can shoot it with the best of them, and they have incredible size across their lineup (I’m zoning ALL game if I’m coaching). Earl Timberlake could be a problem for the Spartans to guard. A LONG SHOT, but something to think about.

Dark Horses

#7 Kansas

It’s hard not to put them as a dark horse. They have players who have been there before and know what it takes. Also, the matchups are not too bad, as they get Arkansas, a St. John’s team that has a lot of players new to March, and then most likely Texas Tech. Florida would be tough, but with this roster, the talent is there. If this sleeping giant puts it together, watch out.

#3 Wisconsin

Okay, yes, they are a 3-seed, but still far from being listed among title contenders by most. For that reason, I put them into the dark horse spot. This team has shooters, hits free throws, and will defend when needed. Out of the Big Ten, they are battle-tested. Also, add in Alabama’s uncertainty with Grant Nelson, and this could be headed for another Wisconsin-Duke classic.

#8 Gonzaga

Yes, big-time homer pick, BUT the stats back it up. All of the metrics that the past 20 champions have met, Gonzaga has. Every graphic I see has all the 1s and 2s, and then randomly, Gonzaga meets the same metric. IF—and it’s a big IF—they finish games, they have shown they can and will play with anyone. The matchups to get to the Sweet 16 are daunting, but if they get there, it opens up a bit after that for a Final Four run.

Favorites

#1 Duke

This one is a no-brainer. They have been the top dogs of the ACC all year and scheduled a tough non-conference slate as well. IF—and IF we had something against them, it could be the lack of tests they’ve had over the past two months. Cooper Flagg’s injury also worries me a little bit, as ankle injuries are so hard to gauge. Still, Duke goes in as the clear favorite.

#1 Florida

This team could be peaking at the right time—another roster that is very talented across the board. A tough SEC schedule has prepared them for this tournament after a subpar non-conference showing. The only worry I’d have is if Walter Clayton Jr. gets in foul trouble—the PG play drops off experience-wise after him.

#2 St. John’s

How can you not pick the Johnnies with Rick Pitino having them peak at the right time? They are a squad no one wants to play. Their defense and athletic play wear you down over 40 minutes. The negative would be their lack of experience in March.

#1 Houston

Defense wins championships! These guys play freakin' defense, and they have a roster full of guys who have been in this position before, making them a very deadly team. A Final Four matchup of Duke vs. Houston could be one for the ages.

A major disclaimer through all of this is… It’s March. So, of course, anything can and will happen. Many are picking their brackets to be very chalk, which makes you really wonder what this tournament will give us.

As the week continues, begin to look for my game-by-game breakdown and predictions.