Cooper Flagg or the Field: I like the Field

The 2024 NBA Draft class was widely considered underwhelming, with no true superstar prospects emerging. In contrast, the 2025 class is loaded with talent, headlined by blue-chip prospect Cooper Flagg, who has been projected as the first overall pick even before playing a college game. Coming into the season, I agreed with this assessment, and Flagg has met expectations, averaging 19 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists on efficient shooting splits. He has been a prolific defender, excelling both on the perimeter and inside. The only real knock against him is his late-game turnovers. His ceiling resembles a Kevin Garnett-level player, while his floor is comparable to Paolo Banchero—making him a safe and deserving first overall pick. With college basketball nearing March and the season winding down, I still believe Flagg should go first due to his high floor and All-NBA potential. However, if I had to predict who will have the best NBA career, I love the Rutgers duo of Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey.

Rutgers has struggled this year, but that is not due to Harper and Bailey. Injuries and poor roster construction around the two former five-star recruits have hampered the team’s success. Between the two, I slightly favor Ace Bailey due to his high ceiling. Watching him play, it’s hard not to think of Kevin Durant. Both are tall and slender with long arms, and Bailey thrives in the mid-range, creating his shot with ease. While he has had games with poor shooting splits due to tough shot selection, when he’s on, he looks like the best player in college basketball. He is currently averaging 18 points, 7 rebounds, and 1 assist per game while maintaining decent shooting efficiency. His athleticism stands out, allowing him to rise above defenders and score at will. Standing at 6’10”, he can shoot over almost anyone. Like any prospect, Bailey has some concerns. The first is maturity. Flagg plays beyond his years and remains composed, whereas Bailey can let emotions get the best of him. He was ejected from the State Penn game after receiving two technical fouls, including one for taunting. However, he is young, and NBA mentorship should help him channel his emotions productively. Defensive effort is another concern, though Rutgers’ poor season likely factors into that. It will be interesting to see how NBA scouts and coaches evaluate his defensive potential. Another glaring issue is his free throw shooting. Despite shooting nearly 50% from the field and 38% from three, he is only converting 68% of his free throws—alarming for a player of his caliber. Even with these flaws, Bailey’s ceiling is that of a Kevin Durant-level scorer. His combination of athleticism and shot-making should translate well to the NBA, and if he lands in the right situation, his defensive potential could be unlocked. However, his floor is lower, resembling someone like Brandon Miller—a talented but streaky shooter still finding consistency in the NBA.

Dylan Harper is the second half of Rutgers’ dynamic freshman duo. While he has been slightly more consistent than Bailey, he has also missed time due to injury. Harper is averaging 19 points, 4 assists, and 4 rebounds on strong shooting splits. He isn’t a generational passer but is an elite facilitator, defender, and relentless rim attacker. Standing at 6’6” with a 6’10” wingspan, he physically overwhelms most opposing guards, making it difficult to stop when driving into the lane. His game closely resembles Cade Cunningham’s at Oklahoma State. When fully healthy, Harper was arguably the best player in the Big Ten. In a better offensive system, he could develop into a scoring threat similar to James Harden, especially if he improves his three-point shot. His high floor is also evident—he plays like a taller Jalen Brunson, using craft and strength to dominate inside. The biggest knock on Harper is his three-point shooting, which sits around 34%. He has had games like his 4-8 performance from deep against USC but also rough outings like his 2-8 game against Oregon. His shot consistency will be crucial at the next level. Another concern is health. While he has only missed three games, he has exited several early due to an ankle sprain. As we’ve seen with Stephen Curry, early-career ankle injuries can be difficult to overcome if not managed properly.

Flagg is a bona fide star and is playing as well as anyone could have expected. However, the upside of Bailey and Harper excites me more when projecting long-term NBA careers. Flagg should still be the first overall pick due to his high floor and All-NBA ceiling, but if I had to invest in one player’s career, I’d put my money on Bailey or Harper to have the best overall impact in the NBA.