Bubble Watch: Monday, January 27th

ACC:

As we head into late January, the NCAA tournament bubble is beginning to take shape. A few teams are solidifying their positions on the right side of the field, while others are drifting to the wrong side. There are three clear tournament teams in the ACC, while four others are battling on the bubble. This week is pivotal for ACC bubble teams, especially Pitt, UNC, and Wake Forest.

Wake Forest went 1-1 last week, securing a win over the Tar Heels but losing to Duke this past Saturday. They remain in the "Next Four Out" due to a weak non-conference schedule. This week is crucial for them, with a significant road game at Louisville on Tuesday and an even bigger matchup at home on Saturday against another ACC bubble team, Pitt. A loss on Tuesday would make Saturday’s game a must-win. An 0-2 record this week would likely push them into the "Next 10-15 Out." A split (1-1) could elevate them into the "Last Four In" or "First Four Out," while a 2-0 record would push them firmly into the field, taking them off the bubble.

To me, UNC and Pitt have the best chance of moving from the bubble to the right side of the field.

UNC has a massive game on Tuesday at 9 PM on ESPN, where they face Pitt. I’ll be attending and am excited to watch this UNC team in person, especially Ian Jackson and RJ Davis. To me, UNC has excellent guard play but struggles in the frontcourt and often looks disjointed offensively. They narrowly escaped Boston College at home in overtime, but a win is a win. With two Quad 1 opportunities this week—against Pitt and their rivalry game versus Duke on Saturday—UNC has a chance to elevate themselves off the bubble with two wins. Their metrics are solid, but they lack Quad 1 wins, which makes this week critical. A 1-1 record would likely keep them on the bubble, but in the "Last Four In" or "Last Four Byes." However, an 0-2 record could be disastrous, potentially spelling doomsday for this Carolina team.

Pitt, meanwhile, broke a four-game losing streak with a close win over rival Syracuse. Although the score was tight, I never felt they were in real danger of losing. Since 2021, when Pitt began turning the corner under Jeff Capel, they’ve only lost once during the regular season to North Carolina and once in last year’s ACC semifinal, which was a thrilling game marred by some questionable officiating (Bacot seemed to get every call). During their recent four-game losing streak, Pitt dropped two heartbreakers at home to teams currently in the tournament field. This shows they can compete with the best in the conference, but their issues with late-game execution and inability to close out games remain a concern. In both losses, Pitt took the lead within the last five minutes but immediately surrendered it. Slow starts have been a recurring problem for Pitt. While it didn’t matter on Saturday against a struggling Syracuse team, it’s a much bigger issue against stronger opponents, forcing Pitt to play from behind constantly. The key to the game against UNC will be rebounding on Tuesday. Both teams have strong guard play but weak frontcourts. The team that wins the rebounding battle will likely win the game.

Looking ahead to Saturday, Pitt’s game at Wake Forest is daunting. They’ve struggled to win in Winston-Salem. While Pitt handles business at home and on neutral sites, playing at Wake Forest is a different story. A mini-rivalry has been brewing between the two programs, as they’ve been battling closely on the bubble in recent years. Blake Hinson’s taunting of the Wake Forest coach last season only added fuel to the fire. For Pitt, the scenarios are clear: a 2-0 record this week takes them off the bubble, 1-1 keeps them on the bubble but in the field, and 0-2 would be a disaster.

SEC:

The SEC has been incredibly dominant this year, with thirteen teams in the field or on the bubble. Last week, Vanderbilt, Texas, and Oklahoma were all in the field but considered bubble teams. All three had huge weeks. Vanderbilt, in particular, made a strong case by beating Tennessee and Kentucky on consecutive Saturdays. They received an AP Top 25 nod, and I believe they are now firmly an 8 or 9 seed, completely taking them off the bubble.

Texas is in a similar position. They had a huge comeback win at home against rival Texas A&M on Saturday, following a significant victory on Tuesday over a ranked Missouri team. In my view, they are also off the bubble, but I have them in the 9—to 10-seed range.

Oklahoma, however, is the most intriguing. They were one of the final remaining undefeated teams but have struggled in conference play. While they had a good week record-wise, going 2-0 with a solid win over South Carolina, they struggled against an Arkansas team that does not have a head coach. I'm leaving the Sooners exactly where they are—still in the field but on the bubble. They need to beat some of the top SEC teams to move off it. They will get that chance Tuesday at Texas A&M and again on Saturday at home against Vanderbilt. I think if they split those two games, that should be enough to get them off the bubble.

BIG 10:

The Big Ten is, in my opinion, the most overrated conference in the country. The elite teams like Michigan State, Illinois, and Oregon are very good, and at times, Wisconsin, UCLA, and Purdue can also be included in that group. However, when I look at their bubble teams, I think they are highly overrated. Maryland had a great week and deserves to be off the bubble after picking up two road wins at Illinois and Indiana. Now, as for Ohio State, Nebraska, and Indiana—I’m not impressed.

I watched Ohio State play Pitt this year, and while they lost on a buzzer-beater, their style is fundamentally flawed. They remind me of the 2022 Pitt team that made the tournament as one of the last four in the tournament and won two games because they relied heavily on shooting threes. That Pitt team eventually lost when they had an off-night, and Ohio State has experienced similar struggles, including a notable 30-plus-point loss at Maryland. For now, I have Ohio State on the bubble but still in the field. However, their reliance on three-point shooting could cause them to drop games they shouldn’t. As for the other bubble teams, I’m completely out on Indiana, Northwestern, Nebraska, State Penn, and Rutgers. These teams have all been disappointing, especially Rutgers and Indiana.

Rutgers has two top-tier players in Bailey and Harper, but the rest of the team is uninspiring. They lack the talent to defend effectively and don’t have a reliable third veteran option to complement their young stars. Indiana has completely lost its culture, and I think that’s due to Mike Woodson. The players don’t seem to care, particularly big-time transfer Omar Ballo, and this attitude has rubbed off on the fans. Watching their game yesterday, the crowd noise was lackluster compared to the usual energy of Assembly Hall. Indiana needs to overhaul its coaching staff and hire someone who can bring in substance over flash. Nebraska started strong but struggled to score consistently. They are at least fun to watch, especially when playing at home. State Penn, on the other hand, is the opposite. They shoot a ton of threes and can fill it up offensively, but they can’t defend at all. Their home games feel lifeless, with minimal crowd energy—more like a funeral home than a basketball arena. The Big Ten’s elite teams will likely perform well in the tournament, but I have serious concerns about Wisconsin, UCLA, and Ohio State—and even Purdue at times.

Attendance State