Welcome to College Basketball Season: Duke: FRAUD ALERT?

It’s officially college basketball season for the casuals, and I get it some ball watchers have to stick to one ball at a time. So, welcome to the show that is the 2024-25 CBB season! Let me guide you to March so there’s no confusion or horrible tweets along the way.

Obviously, the easiest way to get caught up is to check KenPom, the Top 25, Bracketology, or conference records. WRONG. I mean, you don’t want to end up sitting in a press conference talking about the overrated SEC, right? Surely a D1 coach would at least know ball... right?

"It was at this moment, he knew he had F'd up"

Okay, but let’s not throw the whole big picture at you on Day 1. I’m here to talk about the MOST common mistake everyone is about to make (feel free to share this blog EVERYWHERE… you know, in case I’m wrong in March, to keep me accountable). The mistake? Thinking Duke is the team to beat.

All you’ve heard in your little pockets of headline scanning is Duke, Duke, Duke. Here’s the thing, though...it’s because of Cooper Flagg (who, yes, is really good). At this point, you’re probably wondering where I’m going with this, right? They’ve got the #1 draft pick and are sitting at 18-2, 10-0 in the ACC—a power conference that’s easily getting 7-8 bids as usual… WRONG.

The ACC as a conference is going to be the downfall of Duke basketball in 2025. Duke is just coasting along while teams like Iowa State, Houston, Kansas, West Virginia, Baylor, Texas Tech, and BYU are battling it out. Or while Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Oregon, and Wisconsin are duking it out (no pun intended). Don’t even get me started on the SEC even though they’re only .500 in conference play… WAIT, that’s BAIT!

Meanwhile, let’s talk about ACC basketball...what happened to you? What happened to the days of UNC, Louisville, Syracuse, NC State, Florida State, Virginia, Pitt, Miami, and Virginia Tech?! Realistically, this conference should be fighting to get four bids, and three of those are poised to lose in the first round or weekend. Duke, though, is being set up for failure—stuck thinking that games against Clemson, Pitt, and Louisville will prepare them for a Sweet 16 or Elite 8 matchup.

It’s a paradox—or a catch-22, or something good but bad... I don’t know, I’m getting stuck on labels here. But I want you to watch Cooper Flagg, and then watch him compete against basically JV-level ACC teams compared to who JJ Redick, Jayson Tatum, and Zion Williamson had to face. The ACC, instead, is leaving me feeling like Khaman Maluach last night.

Moral of the story: except for a one-off game on February 22nd in Madison Square Garden against Illinois, wait to watch Duke until March. Trust me, you don’t need to watch them mess around for 25-30 minutes and then turn it on for 10 minutes to win by 15-20. The great thing about college basketball is that I guarantee there will always be 5-10 other games to choose from that are much more competitive to put into mutli-screen mode.

Bet Recap: The state of Iowa has failed me... we fall to 1-2, but thats okay back in the lab for this BIG one tonight.

01-28 Bet of the day:

Kentucky +10.5

Saint John's -4

Wake Forest @ Louisville Over 144

Ohio -3

Odds:+1217 (+1826 with DK Boost)