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THE NBA HAS AN AWARDS PROBLEM


In the 2023-24 season, the NBA implemented a new rule regarding who would be eligible for awards. They changed it to where in order to win an individual award or be named to All-NBA, a player would have had to play 65 games. Also a minimum of 20 minutes played in those 65 games just so no one tried to finesse the system. Pretty reasonable right? That's 79% of an NBA season. Only 2 MVP award winners (in non-lockout/COVID shortened seasons) have ever played less than 65 games. Bob Cousy (64 games in 1956-57) and Bill Walton (58 games in 1977-78). The problem we're finding ourselves in now? Certain awards might simply not go to the rightful winners in my opinion.

MVP is the most glaring one for this year. Look this isn't a knock on Cade Cunningham whatsoever. The Pistons have the best record in the NBA (by winning percentage) and the dude is averaging 26/6/10. Usually the best player on the best team wins MVP so I'd have no qualms about him winning. But SGA is on a different level this year. 32/4/6 with stellar defense, nearly 50/40/90 splits, the best team based off record, 2nd in PER, VORP, & BPM, 6th in TS% (1st amongst non-bigs), and the leader in win shares. We are legitametly watching an all-time guard season this year. But if he plays even 64 games? Goodbye MVP and All-NBA. We're close to losing out on Jokic, Luka, and Wemby too as you can see. We already lost Giannis (nowhere close to the 65 games required) as well. I ask you this. If you were to rank the 6 players I've named, where does Cade fall? But as I said, if Cade wins, I wouldn't hate it. But who would be the runner-up? Or even third place? If you go purely based off of the current betting odds excluding the players in that graphic: Jaylen Brown & Donovan Mitchell. That's where we start getting into some uncomfortable discussions. All-NBA 1st Team will still be decently solid. But All-NBA 3rd team? We are getting into some uncomfortable territory with the likes of guys like "Deni Avdija" and "Alperen Sengun". Basically guys who if everyone was healthy or if there was no games played requirement wouldn't make a team.


It's not just for MVP too. It also applies to Defensive Player of the Year too. Wemby can only miss four more games before he is ineligible. And he currently is miles ahead of any other player in the odds:

The dude is simply the best defender in the league. I don't think anyone would argue that. But just like SGA, let's say he misses 5 games? Boom, no DPOY or All-NBA for him either. We already saw it last year with Wemby where he had the most total blocks in the league but couldn't win. My solution: Make it ~75% of games played for awards. That bumps it down slightly to 62 games and makes it a nice round percentage to keep even if the NBA shortens it's season. But in turn, make it 70% of games played (57 games) for All-NBA teams. It's the ultimate question of "Would I rather have a player with an A+/A- performance for 57 games or a player with a solid B for 70+ games?"

But wait! It's not just for awards where games played have an effect. The NBA has truly "lost the plot" when it comes to Most Improved Player. And it has for a while now here and there. But this season feels even more so. Dyson Daniels won last year and rightfully so. The guy went from barely playing and not being that good in NOLA to leading the league in steals with the Hawks. Lauri Markkanen went from a solid 15+ ppg scorer to a legit All-Star in Utah. But...Ja Morant? In his 3rd season? A former SECOND OVERALL PICK!?! Aren't players drafted that high kind of supposed to keep improving and reach All-Star heights? The odds for this year are currently this:

Jalen Johnson made the All-Star leap this year. But only increased his ppg by 5 and his apg by 3 and largely due to an increased role. He looked like the front-runner last year before a season-ending surgery. Avdija had a higher ppg jump (16.9 to 24.4) and also made an All-Star leap. Duren too. But the most obvious pick if we actually go off of, you know, what the award is called: MOST IMPROVED? Ryan freaking Rollins. Call me homer for being a Bucks fan all you want. Let's just look at the facts:

  • Started last NBA season on two-way contract to becoming a starting caliber guard

  • 8th & 11th in the league in steals per game and total steals respectively

  • 41% from 3 last year on 2.1 attempts to 42% on 6 attempts (increased efficiency with increased volume)

  • 6.2 ppg to 17.1 ppg (+10.9 ppg scoring jump!!!)

Everyone saw the potential from Jalen last year. Deni and Duren are two former lottery picks. NAW was already an established high quality role player. Keyonte is also a former lottery pick with smaller jumps compared to Rollins. No one expected Ryan Rollins to ever be the player he is today. That is why this award exists. For players and storylines like him.

 
 
 

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