February 4th: March Madness Locks & Breakdown; ACC & Big 10

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Now into the thick of conference play in the college basketball season, all the talk is about the bubble. We all know how fast the month of February goes, and conference tourneys for auto bids will be tipping off on our screens at work before we know it. Many fans and casuals planning to fill out brackets in just over a month may need a quick update. So, let's first take a look at the teams that have all but punched their tickets at this point in the season. No bubbles, no auto bids...just teams that have done their job and their tournament floor and ceiling based on what they've shown as of February 4th.

Today, we’ll start with the ACC & Big Ten—I don’t want to overload y’all with too much info. Let’s get this started!

ACC: 3 teams are LOCKED IN...yes, only 3. This conference has been a HUGE flop this year.

Duke (19-2, 11-0)

• Best win: Auburn

• Bad loss: N/A

• Best Player: FR G/F Cooper Flagg (20 PPG, 8 RPG, 4 APG)

• Crucial Player: FR F Kon Knueppel – Can light it up; in a tourney, you need your sharpshooter to win Elite 8 & Final 4 games.

• Highest Seed: 1

• Lowest Seed: 2

• Ceiling: National Champions

• Floor: Sweet 16

Clemson (18-4, 10-1)

• Best win: Kentucky

• Bad loss: Boise State (kinda)

• Best Player: SR G Chase Hunter (17.2 PPG, 45% 3FG)

• Crucial Player: Chase Hunter or F/C Ian Schieffelin – Guard and big combo that can do it all. If one or the other goes down or gets into foul trouble, the Tigers lack depth.

• Highest Seed: 3

• Lowest Seed: 7

• Ceiling: Elite 8

• Floor: Round of 32

Louisville (16-6, 9-2)

• Best win: Clemson

• Bad loss: Georgia Tech

• Best Player: SR PG Chucky Hepburn (15.1 PPG, 6.4 AST)

• Crucial Player: SR G Ryne Smith – He can get you 9 points in 3 possessions. He is the heartbeat of a run that can either get them back in a game or take you out of it if he’s not hitting.

• Highest Seed: 5

• Lowest Seed: 9-10

• Ceiling: Sweet 16

• Floor: Round of 64

That’s the only three teams that are locks in the ACC. After that, as of today, there are just two on the bubble: Pitt (who was a lock until recently losing to Virginia was tough) and SMU, who still needs a little more work to move into the lock category.

Big Ten: This list will be longer, but remember, these are only LOCKS as of February 4th, 2025.

No “Well, if they…” or “They’ll win this game…” talk. Don’t say ‘and stuff’! Let’s get into it.

Michigan State (18-3, 9-1)

• Best win: Illinois

• Bad loss: USC

• Best Player: SR G Jaden Akins (13.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG) – Tough choice; they are a VERY balanced team.

• Crucial Player: FR G Jase Richardson – Son of Jason Richardson. If he can elevate his game consistently in March, watch out.

• Highest Seed: 1

• Lowest Seed: 4

• Ceiling: Elite 8

• Floor: Round of 32 (that USC loss… they aren’t better than a 32 matchup)

Purdue (17-5, 9-2)

• Best win: Alabama

• Bad loss: Ohio State

• Best Player: JR PG Braden Smith (15.8 PPG, 8.8 APG)

• Crucial Player: Smith – Others will say Fletcher Loyer or Trey Kaufman-Renn, but they’re wrong. How Smith plays is how far this team goes (see the OSU loss, where he shot 3-14).

• Highest Seed: 1-2 (needs to win both regular season & conference tourney for a shot at 1)

• Lowest Seed: 4

• Ceiling: Final 4

• Floor: Sweet 16

Michigan (16-5, 8-2)

• Best win: Wisconsin

• Bad losses: Minnesota & Wake Forest

• Best Player: JR F Danny Wolf (12.2 PPG, 10 RPG)

• Crucial Player: SR C Vladislav Goldin – A 7’1” shot blocker who, if he stays out of foul trouble, makes Michigan a more complete team on both ends.

• Highest Seed: 3-4

• Lowest Seed: 8-9

• Ceiling: Sweet 16

• Floor: Round of 64 (Minnesota & Wake Forest losses are tough to explain)

Illinois (15-7, 7-5)

• Best win: Missouri

• Bad loss: USC

• Best Player: FR G/F Kasparas Jakucionis (15.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 5.5 APG)

• Crucial Player: FR F Will Riley – Needs to become the solid #2 option. His athleticism and scoring ability can take Illinois to another level.

• Highest Seed: 4-5

• Lowest Seed: 9-10

• Ceiling: Elite 8

• Floor: Round of 64 (USC loss & shooting struggles are concerning)

Wisconsin (17-5, 7-4)

• Best win: Arizona

• Bad loss: UCLA?

• Best Player: SR G John Tonje (18.6 PPG)

• Crucial Player: Tonje – If he doesn’t find ways to impact the game, they will struggle to score outside of him.

• Highest Seed: 5-6

• Lowest Seed: 7-8

• Ceiling: Sweet 16

• Floor: Round of 32

Maryland (17-5, 7-4)

• Best win: Illinois

• Bad loss: Washington

• Best Player: FR F Derik Queen (15 PPG, 8.3 RPG)

• Crucial Player: SR F Julian Reese – The veteran of the team. They need him to complement their young freshman stud inside. As a tandem, they can be hard to beat.

• Highest Seed: 5

• Lowest Seed: 10-11

• Ceiling: Sweet 16

• Floor: Round of 64 (Washington loss is baffling)

UCLA (16-6, 7-4)

• Best win: Gonzaga or Wisconsin

• Bad loss: UNC or Rutgers

• Best Player: JR F Tyler Bilodeau (14 PPG, 4.7 RPG)

• Crucial Player: Coach Mick Cronin – Can he keep his team together? He’s had some interesting outbursts. His coaching could dictate this team’s run.

• Highest Seed: 5-6

• Lowest Seed: 11

• Ceiling: Sweet 16

• Floor: Round of 64

As of now, those are the Big Ten LOCKS. Oregon is on the cusp but has slid recently. USC, Indiana, Penn State, and Ohio State have a LOT of work to do.

That’s your ACC & Big Ten update...you won’t get another until tournament resume & matchup time. You have plenty of info to work with, so start watching ball...IT’S BASKETBALL SEASON, BOYS!

Bet Recap: L...I hate it here. Clear the mind. It's all about going 1-0 today.

02-04 Bet of the day: Road Warriors!

Marquette ML

USC ML

Odds: +401

Take them straight up too for +124 each!